Seeing The Crisis Clearly

After a wobbly start, governments at all levels seem to be doing a better job of tracking and reporting Covid19 infection rates and deaths. That's clearly a top priority right now. You can't peruse the news, in print or online, without seeing the tragic tally creep higher each day, sometimes by fits, sometimes by starts. Statistics are tricky little devils so an alert reader must parse the numbers with care and put them in context. But at least they're out there now. It's a good way to remind us that human lives are riding on how we weather the storm and get back to "normal," whatever that means now. 

But the relentless focus on just one set of stats, as important as they are, also can tend to encourage a certain tunnel vision, or maybe it's more like myopia, obscuring our ability to see the "big picture" and know entirety of what we're dealing with. We understandably want to know who is sick, who has died, how the outbreak is evolving, where the "hot zones" are. But too tight of a focus on just that data may blind us to the wider but also real repercussions that stem not just from the virus but from our response to the virus.

There's been an earthquake. We're looking almost exclusively at the epicentre, however, trying to triage the temblor's immediate casualties, while forgetting or ignoring the aftershocks rippling through wider society. Some naturally prefer a narrow focus. It feeds the sense of urgency and crisis that helps hasten the public and private sector response. They frankly may not want to look at secondary or tertiary impacts indicating that we cured the disease but killed the patient, which is a topic of growing debate right now. They want to focus on the benefits of their actions, while ignoring or discounting the equally real costs, as if it's creepy, cold-hearted or inhumane to even consider a cost-benefit analysis in times of such duress.

Plunging tax revenues, spiking unemployment claims, a change in state GDP; these commonly used metrics all will help us grasp the larger implications. These are "lagging indicators" that will roll in over time, like waves on a beach, but they're also reasonably reliable. Other social impacts are harder to find metrics for, unless you make a special effort. And I think Colorado should make that effort.

Therefore, my suggestion is for Governor Polis to begin tracking and reporting an additional set of metrics as we move forward, aimed at measuring the wider social repercussions not just of the virus, but of the state's response to the virus, so that we don't fall prey to tunnel vision and can grasp the situation comprehensible. Here's my starter list of suggested indicators, which I may amend over time. I believe all these, except for the homelessness number, are there for the unearthing if you dig for them.

• Business closures
• Bankruptcies (business and personal)
• Divorces
• Suicides
• Domestic Abuse Calls
• Crime trends 
• Homeless trends 

Please email me at SeanPaige@msn.com if you can suggest measurable metrics I overlooked.

I really believe the Governor will be doing Coloradans a disservice if these metrics aren't as closely monitored as COVID19 infection rates and fatalities.

The COVID Recovery Will Require a Continuous War on Red Tape

Here's some welcome news. I love to see the productive sector (i.e. private sector) swinging into action in response to the coronavirus crisis. But why is federal permission needed before private companies can start cranking-out respirators or any other pieces of medical equipment? And how does that square with our boasts about being a "free country"? 

It's encouraging to see President Trump clearing-away the massive knot of red tape (much of it outdated, unnecessary or just plain asinine) that normally anchors down the US economy. But why does most of this red tape exist? What purpose (aside from empowering bureaucrats and keeping lawyers and the compliance officers busy) does it serve? And do we still need it? Aren't these questions we ought to be asking not just when the shit hits the fan, but when normalcy prevails?

Just imagine what we could accomplish -- just imagine how much more dynamic and responsive the US economy would be -- if we could make these emergency measures permanent once the crisis passes. Trump has had unheralded success in his first term slicing and dicing red tape. It's a story that doesn't get told because the press and pundits would prefer to focus on the tweets and the gaffes and the "unpresidential" antics. And the economy was strongly responding until the outbreak occurred. 

We'll need much more regulatory relief in order to speed the post-COVID recovery. We'll need to continue emergency rules reductions after the human health crisis wanes and we turn our attention to saving and restoring our economic health.

No one other than Trump has the steel stones necessary to throw out the old rule book and rein-in the regulatory superstate. This is where his brashness, bravado and take-no-prisoners attitude become assets, not liabilities. Can anyone imagine a regulation-worshipping liberal like Bernie or Biden doing that? I can't.