He won't last a year in that job

Rahm Emanuel may be suited for many jobs in the White House, like walking the fence line at night with the Secret Service, sniffing for bombs and snarling at tourists, but he's going to be a disaster as Barack Obama's chief of staff, as today's profile in The New York Times confirms. Remember that you read it here first: He won't last a year in that job. It's a role that requires tact, moderation, composure, maturity and the ability to sublimate ego and partisanship for the greater good -- all attributes the former Clintonista (like most of his ilk) lacks in spades. And he's absolutely the wrong pick for a president who says he wants to lead the nation in an Olympian, post-partisan fashion.

So print out this blog post and tape it to the refrigerator. If Rahm Emanuel is still White House chief of staff one year from now, and my amazing powers of prognostication have been proved wrong, anyone who calls me out on it will get a free tee-shirt from The American Contrarian Gift Shop. He may still be working for the president, but he won't be chief of staff.